Depression

Collapse is Starting

President Obama promised “Hope and Change” when he was elected; he has definitely managed to deliver “Change,” and last week he was quoted saying “Hope” doesn’t happen overnight. Change has come at us like a freight train and repeatedly I have our covered loss of civil liberties, now our economic future has been stolen by Washington:
– The debt deal promised cuts, but the debt will increase by $8 trillion dollars to $23 trillion by 2021. “Why?” Because the government calls a “cut” less spending than was projected for the following year, not less than is spent now.
– The day after the deal passed the government spent $236 billion, or $750 per citizen, in a single day. For my family of six, the debt increased by $4500. I don’t have an extra $4500 lying around, do you?
– Standard and Poor’s downgraded the U.S. credit outlook for the first time in history on August 5, 2011. To claim this is a political move would underscore the objectivity of credit reporting.
– The official Chinese news agency commented, “China has every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China’s dollar assets.”
– Food stamp usage hit a new historic high last week, 45.5 million, up from 26 million in January 2007, and 32 million in January 2009 when Obama took office.
– According to the Census Bureau, homeownership fell to the lowest level since 1998, 65.9%, and if delinquencies are included the numbers match 1965’s level of 59.2%, according to Morgan Stanley.
– Housing prices have dipped 32% since they peaked in mid-2006, again for the 50th straight month realtors call a bottom to the decline.
– Weekly first time jobless claims continued their record setting levels above 400,000 for the 17th straight week.
– The average length of time to find a job has surged to a new record, 40.4 weeks.
– The labor force participation rate fell to a new low, 63.9% not seen since the early 1980s.
– Including those who quit looking but desire employment, the broader unemployment rate reached 16.1%.
– Gold topped historic numbers last week, closing above $1660/ounce.

I believe President Obama and Congress sealed their political fate last week and I am hopeful revolution will begin with the election of leaders, not self-serving politicians in 2012. A quick read of history will point to failed governments following the same path as the United States. We will not have societal Armageddon tomorrow, but our standard of living, and more importantly future generations’ standard of living, will continue to decline.

My 100th Column

My 100th Column (07/27/2011)

This week I celebrate my 100th column, a huge milestone for me as I could not have imagined writing for “The Observer” for nearly two years without missing a week; I just wish my high school English teacher could see me now. I want to thank the publishers for the opportunity, seeing something they liked and allowing me free reign to pontificate as I desire. It was freelance writing, “Death and Taxes” that won me the opportunity and I find it ironic it is that issue, taxes, currently in front of the American people. As I look back over the last 99 weeks I note my philosophies have emerged where I feel I can clearly define my views: libertarian (with a little “L”), constitutionalist fearful of eroding liberties, and angry at politicians feeling anointed to spend, steal, and create laws but yet hold themselves above the people.

My early columns could be republished today: “What is Government’s Role”, “When Should Citizens Fear their Government?”, and “Big Brother is Watching.” Sadly I look back and see a country that has worsened during the last 100 weeks and continues to spin into the abyss while the citizenry look the other way to take in meaningless hype like Casey Anthony, the NFL, and “Dancing with Stars.” Two forces have united to provide the Kool-Aid for apathy, the media and the President. Right now we are two years into the economic recovery: remember “Green Shoots”, Biden and Obama touting all of the jobs they saved, and the National Realtors Association calling the bottom to housing prices? This deception is dutifully reported by the three networks and bull-horned by General Electric owned MSNBC and CNBC.

Over the weekend, the networks gave more time to the Amy Winehouse drug-induced death than the critical issues. Did you know last week gold hit a historic high over $1,600/ounce; jobless claims topped 400,000 for the 15th week in a row; and Borders (closed 399 stores), Cisco and Lockheed Martin announced combined layoffs of 23,000? Since January state and local governments have laid off 142,000 workers. Let’s not forget last week’s media celebration of American Airlines ordering jets from Airbus, a consortium of European companies, a staggering loss to domestic aircraft producers. Although our President tells us things are better and improving it is impossible to conclude the same when looking at the numbers. Likewise the 1930s were a long road of government missteps trying to fix problems created by the same banking cartel whose lineage has brought the same destruction upon us today. Looking back, history provides hilarious quotes from our leaders during the Great Depression trumpeting the recovery and “Happy Days are Here Again.” I believe Obama and Biden will be similarly chided for their mistruths when history is chiseled.

July 24, 2011 by admin Civil Rights Depression General Rant Great Recession Mainstream Media Obama

Higher Education Myth

Higher Education Myth (7/6/2011)

My daughter is 15, just finished her freshman year of high school. Like many parents with a high school student I am carefully watching her grades and doing everything I can to ensure she will make it to college. Over the last four decades the number of students going to college has increased, and so have the costs. I was the first in my family to attend college, earning my way on a scholarship and understanding the path in front of me: attend school, work hard, get good grades, and graduate expecting to find a good paying job. Even in the 1980s I was puzzled by the choice of major some would make, possibly liberal arts related and then wonder why they could not find a job. As an Engineer I was showered with job offers and an excellent starting salary (nearly $39,000 in 1990).

Today it appears college has become an entitlement program, fueled by readily available public financing and a willing consumer unqualified to receive a “real education.” In 2011 the average public university cost will be $20,000 per year, and a private school twice that much. Assume your son or daughter is following their passion into liberal arts and a 4-year degree will approach $160,000 with income prospects of $25-30,000 per year; if they are lucky. Sadly, there is an assumption these students are qualified for education, and more so entitled to a job at graduation. I recently heard this anecdote Continue reading…

July 6, 2011 by admin Big Government Capitalism Depression Great Recession

July 4th 2011

July 4th 2011 (6/29/2011)

Last July 4th I was in Washington, D.C. with my children and wife to watch the nation’s fireworks show. It was a moving experience to visit the Jefferson and Lincoln Memorials, see the Washington Monument, and more importantly to trek through the National Archives to see the Declaration of Independence and Constitution first-hand. In the last 12 months there has been a political shift in the House, political scandals, the death of Osama Bin Laden, and wars started in Libya and now Yemen. Last July 4th gas prices averaged $2.72 versus $3.70 this year, more Americans are on food stamps than ever before – 13% from last year, and housing prices have dropped more than in the Great Depression – down another 5% from last year. With bad numbers at home things must be getting better abroad, but that is far from what is occurring. The European Union appears to be entering a new crisis ignited by Greece and the Japanese earthquake is showing how desperate governments put pride before safety.

July 4th is celebration of the events of the summer of 1776 and the proclamations debated in Philadelphia in July to declare independence from the British. The two statements, “all men are created equal” and “Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness” are idolized around the world as symbolic of the freedom we have. It was September 17, 1787 that gave us the America we enjoy today; the signing of the Constitution and Bill of Rights. It did take nearly another 18 months to ratify the document, but the America I know came from the forward thinking Continue reading…

June 29, 2011 by admin Civil Rights Depression Freedom Great Recession

What lifestyle changes would you make?

Check out this house. Is it worth it? No mortgage, living happy without the fear of a bank taking everything. Depending on where you have been in the last two years financially you may not understand the changes taking place in America.

The Greatest Depression is continuing in a rapid downward spiral with the plummeting value of home prices. Too many Americans have tied their fate to the future of their home. Since 2008 home prices have fallen 33%.

What is a house? How many people thought they were living the dream of a McMansion – 4000 square feet and a $4000/month mortgage?

I will continue on my 1.6 acres of rural countryside – chickens, woods, space, and simplicity. Life is easy when you have less.

June 7, 2011 by admin Depression Great Recession Peak Oil preparedness

Wealth Disparity

Wealth Disparity (5/11/2011)

A drive through New Smyrna Beach demonstrates the extreme wealth disparity that can be found anywhere in America or the world. From the mega-wealth of beachside to the barely surviving poor west of U.S. Highway 1 radical contrasts in daily life are found. It is impossible to look away in a small town and not acknowledge differences, to ignore them would be unconscionable. Like New Smyrna, America’s numbers are mind-blowing: the top 1% controls nearly 33% of the wealth in America whereas the bottom 50% has just 2.5% of the wealth.

Don’t misunderstand me. I love nice things, eating out, a beautiful home, new cars, and a big bank account. As a country even our poorest live far better than the middle class does overseas, but such argument is not cause for turning our backs on the needy. Similarly, the populist envy driven by our current President does not justify excessively taxing wage earners, or the ultra-wealthy. The current raging debate has disclosed the failures of our progressive tax system: envy that the “rich” pay much of their tax through a 15% dividend, and sadly uncovering through subsidies and support programs a single mother of three earning $14,000 per year has more disposable income than a similar mother earning $60,000.

We need the successful to succeed, creating jobs, opportunities, and capital for driving the economy. Simultaneously an understanding and empathy must exist for those who need help. I do not have solutions, but must argue the debate is lost in political rhetoric and desire to drive pet projects. Taxing the wealthy at 100% will not provide enough revenue to fix the government spending problem and it certainly will not lift those in need. Milton Friedman argues in the movie, “The One Percent” the increasing wealth gap is justified because it has also lifted the poorest of poor. In earlier lectures Friedman, in characteristic fashion, shows at least that government creates a perverse system starting with bad schools, limits opportunity through minimum wage laws, and creates dependency via welfare programs.

The political debate from both sides focuses on our tax system and protecting special interests, Republicans arguing to keep tax rates low on the rich, Democrats seeking more. Sadly, both sides view 67,000 pages of tax code as the holy grail of government purpose and fail to understand simplifying the tax system and cutting spending will allow market forces to work toward solutions benefitting both rich and poor.

May 26, 2011 by admin Capitalism Depression Great Recession

My two cents…

The fed is between a rock and a hard place:

– no more QE: the stock market will crash, no easy credit, brakes on economy
– continue QE: rising inflation, real wages dropping, angry voters.

Furthermore the Administration is not supposed to be part of the monetary policy but Obama will politically pay for the decision either way.

What should we do:
– keep your gas tanks full (I filled the RV in January, $2.90/gallon, today driving home it is $3.80/gallon — $60 savings
– keep your pantry full — anything you buy today is cheaper than tomorrow
– understand the stock market is like going to Vegas. Best trading option is probably futures contracts
– pay down debt that costs more than 6%-8% to improve cash flow. Anything else is about to become cheap money. Free up the expensive money to invest in CD’s, dividend paying accounts when interest rates go back to 10-12-14%
– Remember, as interest rates go up bond prices go down. why do you think PIMCO sold ALL of their treasury bonds?
– Remember the government has $4 trillion in short-term treasuries coming due in the next 18 months

April 17, 2011 by admin Capitalism Depression Great Recession preparedness

The Hydra Monster

The Hydra Monster (4/13/2011)

On Friday Americans will repeat the annual ritual of paying taxes. Local television stations will provide live coverage from postal offices near closing time; editorializing what we “must” do to pay our taxes. Obediently most all of her citizens will have complied and the monster of government will continue living, and regardless of attack she cannot be killed through starvation or even radical cuts. Valiantly some men are trying like Congressmen Ron Paul and Paul Ryan, but attempts to shut down the government and truly kill the monster to save future generations are met with mockery from the press and she continues to live.

Sadly, the Hydra Monster lives at all levels of our lives. We start with our paychecks by enslaving ourselves for the first three to four months of the year to pay Federal income tax (20%) and FICA (7.65%). Sadly, most people ignore the 7.65% raise they would receive if employers did not have to pay taxes “on their behalf.” In Georgia I have a state tax of approximately 3% and there are the other taxes my employer pays instead of paying me: SUTA and FUTA. Adding it all together nearly 40% of our paycheck is gone. In November most local municipalities seek property taxes on those who own real estate, amounts of $5-$15k are averages in Volusia County (let’s assume 10% of income). With every purchase comes sales tax: 6.5%. Adding everything together comes to 55% of earnings. Of course, there are countless fees and taxes on phones, internet, licenses, and registrations further driving up costs.

Taxes anger me because the Hydra Monster called government relentlessly feeds itself on the backs of all men and abusively spends the collected monies. At the national level the monster is so large the President readily acknowledged during his promotion of healthcare fraud and waste in Medicare comes to $1 billion, but the monster lives on. Locally governments build multi-million dollar firehouses on prime commercial property and create pension plans to allow productive citizens to withdraw from the workforce at early ages. In Nassau County, NY policeman earn $100k after five years and are entitled to hundreds of thousands in annual retirement benefits!

Our country is dying, consumed by the Hydra Monster. No matter how hard our heroes try to cut a head she will live on, breathing fire against her people, growing meaninglessly, and adding more heads to become ever more pervasive and invasive in our lives. Radical change is required to defeat the Hydra Monster, only banded together can she be killed. Paying taxes this week is a sad offering to the misery befalls man but will make the Monster stronger.

April 17, 2011 by admin Big Government Capitalism Depression Great Recession taxes

Destroying Futures

Imagine earning $30,000 (3 Trillion) per year but having bills and obligations of $42,000 (4.2 Trillion) per year. Additionally, let’s assume you have a spouse and two children with wants and desires. With your income falling short you would know radical changes in your lifestyle must be made and if you are a Dave Ramsey fan you know every expenditure would have to be considered and nearly one-fourth must be cut. However, the kids will complain if you cut their movies, food, school activities, clothes and even iTunes budget (government spending). Your spouse does not want to discuss the issue because she feels the problem will go away, as if by magic, and there is no reason to upset the kids (political debate).

However, there is an answer: debt. Of course, a loan to create a source of “income” can be created (deficit spending). For instance, a second mortgage on your home could fund the shortfall and maybe allow you to buy a new big-screen television or car, a hugely popular decision at home. But this only works for a while, quickly you discover the interest only payments add another $500 per month to your obligations, thus you are now using the debt taken on to pay for the original shortfall and the new debt (treasury auctions)! You have looked for ways to increase income, but the economy isn’t growing and no one is hiring (tax revenue). Your anxiety increases because you know this cannot keep going and bankruptcy may be the only way out.

One day however, your neighbor Fred (Federal Reserve) knocks on your door and explains his multi-level marketing business is doing well and as long as he keeps getting new people involved his success will grow and he would like to help you. Hesitantly you agree to his proposal: he will paper over your debt (purchase bonds), and you can repay him in 30-years. Thoughtfully you think his proposed near zero interest rate and 30-year offer has to work. At age 50 it is even unlikely you will be here in 30 years to deal with the repercussions. With a wink, Fred explains your children will assume the entire debt, with interest. After contemplation you feel it is better to risk your children’s future than to reign in your lifestyle today, and hurt their feelings, and since they do not get an opinion (can’t vote) they will never know. Like a deal with the devil, you know there is no way out.

March 4, 2011 by admin Capitalism Depression Great Recession preparedness taxes

Wisconsin

I debated whether to offer an opinion regarding Wisconsin, but knew I could not let go of this protest. I am impressed with the 65,000 plus protesters that believe in something strong enough to brave the cold. More important to see debate with such passion engaging on our own soil gives me hope toward future revolution against our government and the tyranny we face. It appears the press – from the left and right, have managed to blur the issue at hand as there only appears two possible opposing views when tapping MSNBC or Fox News. I hypothesize three parties are now at war in this country: Public Servants, the Ruling Elite (executive pay), and the Private Sector. Thus, a two pointed perspective does not work and furthermore the issue at hand is not about trimming union rights, but re-aligning public servant compensation.

Austerity measures will generate class warfare and in this Great Recession the compensation of the three parties has diverged greatly. Executive pay remained safe and increased greatly and Public Service payrolls have increased far greater than private payrolls. On the other hand, the Private Sector has suffered irreplaceable job losses, flat wages and lives in fear of a pink slip delivery tomorrow. At the same time the Private Sector is asked to pay more income tax, more sales tax, more property tax, and more fees to pay for the perpetuation of Public Service compensation programs and to bailout reckless executives who lost gambling bets against the masses during the debt fueled frenzy.

Ancient Rome succeeded through an ever expanding territorial economy fueling the wants and desires of Caesar. The masses found relief through entertainment at the Coliseum and a sense of safety, but yet traded liberty for trite compensation. Similarly, America is like Rome; rich Senators, a small ruling class, and wealth obtained for a few due to the destruction of others. Our masses are entertained by media and sports, not taking time to understand the reason behind the need for change. Like Rome our public servants are protected by a never ending spigot of tax dollars and turn against the working class and income earners for whom they supposedly serve.

It is forgotten that our children will ultimately pay the price. Something is happening in America right now, and it started with the bursting of the debt bubble three years ago. Denial has not worked and protests will become more common, maybe leading to revolution. I am concerned for my children’s future and cannot imagine the tax burden, inflation, and tyranny they will face if we do not stop opposing the protesters in Wisconsin.

March 4, 2011 by admin Big Government Depression Great Recession Health care taxes